Maps present Tropical Storm Ernesto’s path and forecast because it intensifies en path to Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Ernesto gained energy on Tuesday morning because it headed towards the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the place forecasters stated it might convey highly effective winds and heavy rain — as much as 10 inches in some locations — earlier than probably intensifying right into a hurricane. 

Ernesto grew to become the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season when it shaped Monday alongside a fast-moving path to the Caribbean. The storm comes on the heels of Hurricane Debby, which lashed elements of the southeastern United States final week with disastrous flooding and brewed up a flash of extreme climate that finally touched a lot of the East Coast. Ernesto wasn’t anticipated to strike the mainland U.S., the National Hurricane Center stated. 

Maps charting Ernesto’s path, based on the most recent forecasts Tuesday afternoon, advised the storm would proceed on its route towards the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, after touring throughout parts of the Leeward Islands. Ernesto might both attain or move over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the night, though forecasters stated it was attainable the system’s observe would carry it close to the islands as an alternative of over them.

Ernesto might develop right into a hurricane after leaving the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, which might require its most sustained wind speeds to satisfy or exceed 74 miles per hour. That might occur by Wednesday, forecasters stated, though an preliminary timeline for Ernesto’s strengthening advised it would not attain the edge essential to warrant hurricane standing till early Thursday.

As of two p.m. ET on Tuesday, the storm was churning within the Atlantic Ocean, about 85 miles east of St. Croix and about 175 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, based on the hurricane heart. It was touring west-northwestward at 18 mph and packing most sustained winds of 60 mph.

Hurricane watches had been in impact for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm warnings had been additionally in impact for these locations, in addition to in Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten. Previous tropical storm warnings for Antigua, Barbuda and Guadeloupe had been discontinued Tuesday afternoon. 

Hurricane watches are issued when hurricane situations are attainable in a given space inside 12 hours or so. Tropical storm warnings are issued when forecasters anticipate tropical storm situations to affect an space inside 36 hours, however meteorologists stated at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday that tropical storm situations had been anticipated to start within the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by nighttime, and probably even before that. Powerful winds and different climate situations typical of a tropical storm had been already occurring within the Leeward Islands, they stated.

Tropical-storm-force winds prolonged outward as much as 105 miles from Ernesto’s heart on Tuesday afternoon — a large growth from its 70-mile attain within the morning — based on the hurricane heart. 

Not in contrast to Debby, which dumped devastating and, in some situations, historic rainfall on southeastern U.S. states final week, Ernesto’s main menace was inundation, though barely much less rain was forecast for this week in contrast with final week’s hurricane.

Ernesto was anticipated to bathe elements of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands with 4 to six inches of rain, whereas southeastern Puerto Rico was anticipated to see 6 to eight inches, though forecasters warned that as a lot as 10 inches of rain might fall in sure locations.

 CBS News senior climate producer David Parkinson stated Tuesday morning that even a foot of rainfall may very well be attainable in areas the place the terrain may lend itself to that. Northwestern Puerto Rico was forecast to get much less rain, between 2 and 4 inches in complete.

“Heavy rainfall could lead to domestically appreciable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by at this time, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later at this time by Wednesday,” the hurricane heart stated in an advisory Tuesday morning.

Ernesto was additionally anticipated to gas storm surge, between 1 and three toes above floor ranges, alongside the jap coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan, the capital metropolis, to Guayama, and to the islands of Culebra and Vieques. The similar peak surge forecast might materialize within the U.S. Virgin Islands, together with St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix, and within the British Virgin Islands. The hurricane heart warned that surge could be accompanied by massive, harmful waves in coastal areas. 

By Thursday morning, when Ernesto was forecast to have grown from a tropical storm to a minimum of a Category 1 hurricane, it might doubtless proceed monitoring northward over the western Atlantic on a path towards Bermuda, the place it might make landfall on Sunday, Parkinson stated. He famous that the jap seaboard of the mainland U.S. might see rip currents and bigger waves than standard as an oblique consequence of the storm.

“It is just too quickly to know what impacts Ernesto might convey to Bermuda late this week,” the hurricane heart stated Tuesday, including that “pursuits there ought to monitor the progress of this technique.”