EGN NEWS DESK
As we head into COP29 in oil-and-gas-rich Azerbaijan with the UN warning we’re on track for as much as 3°C of temperature rise, local weather scientists are urging governments to give attention to cryosphere. The frozen areas of our planet are warming a number of occasions quicker than the worldwide common. If the nations of the world can’t agree on measures to carry world warming to a most of 1.5°C, the specialists warn of doubtless devastating and irreversible impacts from cryosphere soften, not only for the icy north, however for the entire planet.
Icy temperatures making northern Europe uninhabitable, a breakdown of agriculture, fisheries disruption, unprecedented regional climate extremes, further sea degree rise with disastrous flooding – the Nordic Council of Ministers assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland, in October obtained a stark warning from 43 main worldwide local weather scientists. In an open letter delivered by Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, Head of Earth System Analysis at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the specialists warn that there’s a “severe threat of a significant ocean circulation change within the Atlantic, (…) with devastating and irreversible impacts, particularly for Nordic international locations, but in addition for different components of the world”.
Icy prospects for northern Europe
The specialists see rising proof that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system of ocean currents that transports warmth northwards into the North Atlantic, is more and more prone to passing a tipping level and ultimately collapsing. AMOC, the scientists write, “determines life situations for all individuals within the Arctic area and past”.
Remember that Hollywood movie, “The Day after Tomorrow”, with the state of affairs of melting polar ice caps pouring contemporary water into the oceans and diluting the salt degree stability, inflicting the temperature of the ocean currents to plummet and disrupting the North Atlantic present? A Hollywood blockbuster: doom, fast and sudden catastrophe, heroics, emotion and loads of keen suspension of disbelief. But that primary thought of polar ice altering currents, heat transport and disrupting the local weather? Not as far-fetched because it may need appeared?
An inflow of chilly, contemporary water from melting land ice like Greenland’s huge ice sheet, is a significant factor in altering ocean currents, altering the temperature and salinity of the water.
There are indications that Amoc has been slowing down for the final 60 or 70 years resulting from world heating, Rahmstorf explains in an interview with the Guardian. The most ominous signal, he says, is the “chilly blob” over the northern Atlantic.
“The area is the one place on the earth that has cooled previously 20 years or so, whereas all over the place else on the planet has warmed – an indication of lowered warmth transport into that area, precisely what local weather laptop fashions have predicted in response to Amoc slowing because of greenhouse fuel emissions.”
So why the outcry at this specific time?
When science overtakes itself
“A string of scientific research previously few years means that this threat has to date been significantly underestimated, the local weather scientists write of their open letter. ”Such an ocean circulation change would have devastating and irreversible impacts particularly for Nordic international locations, but in addition for different components of the world.”
The authors, from institutes all around the globe, say “science more and more confirms that the Arctic area is a “floor zero” for tipping level dangers and local weather regulation throughout the planet.”
They warn: “In this area, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Barents sea ice, the boreal permafrost methods, the subpolar gyre deep-water formation and AMOC are all weak to main, interconnected nonlinear modifications”.
The studies by the IPCC, the syntheses of our scientific data on local weather change, which ought to present the idea for governments to behave on local weather, are unable to maintain tempo with ongoing analysis. The physique allocates levels of chance to doable modifications within the local weather system. The IPCC concluded in its final report that “there’s medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation won’t collapse abruptly earlier than 2100”. Now that may have reassured lots of people, particularly taking a look at a short-term perspective. “But if it had been to happen, it might very seemingly trigger abrupt shifts in regional climate patterns, and enormous impacts on ecosystems and human actions”, the report went on.
Now the 43 authors of the open letter, together with high-profile scientists like Timothy Lenton, Anders Levermann, Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf and Johan Rockström say current analysis because the final IPCC report suggests the physique has underestimated this threat, and that “the passing of this tipping level is a severe chance already within the subsequent few many years”.
Worrying?
A threat too excessive to disregard
The scientists stress that regardless of important analysis into the likelihood and mechanisms of a collapse, the chance of such an incidence stays extremely unsure. But of their view, solely“medium confidence” within the AMOC not collapsing “is just not reassuring, and clearly leaves open the opportunity of an AMOC collapse throughout this century. And there’s even better chance {that a} collapse is triggered this century however solely totally performs out within the subsequent”, they write.
It is a query of threat evaluation, Rahmstorf instructed the Guardian:
“ I examine it to being instructed that there’s a 10% likelihood of an airplane crashing. Would you get on that aircraft? I wouldn’t. The disastrous penalties are unacceptable.”
As for his personal expectations: “I’m now very involved that we could push Amoc over this tipping level within the subsequent many years. If you ask me my intestine feeling, I’d say the chance that we cross the tipping level this century is about 50/50”, Rahmstorf instructed the Guardian.
That is critically worrying!
Insights from the distant previous
A examine simply printed in Nature by the iC3 Polar Research Hub primarily based at UiT, the Arctic University of Norway in Tromsö, backs up the warning that melting Arctic sea ice might have an effect on world ocean circulation by taking a look at what occurred in Earth’s historical past. The researchers found that rising inflows of freshwater from melting Arctic sea-ice into the Nordic Seas “seemingly considerably affected ocean circulation, sending temperatures plummeting throughout northern Europe.”
Lead creator Mohamed Ezat from the iC3 Polar Research Hub, instructed me in an electronic mail:
“While local weather fashions present precious insights into what our future local weather could seem like, they nonetheless carry massive uncertainties, specifically for long-term predictions and at regional scales. Looking on the distant previous of the earth’s local weather historical past specifically when it was hotter than at the moment can cut back such uncertainties. For instance, in our examine we targeted on the Last Interglacial interval, some 128,000 years in the past, when the worldwide common temperature was estimated to be 1 to 2 C hotter than preindustrial i.e.it’s like what we’re heading to throughout this century.”
Ezat describes these findings as “alarming”: “This reminds us that the planet’s local weather is a fragile stability, simply disrupted by modifications in temperature and ice cowl.”
Ice-free summer season situations are anticipated to happen within the Arctic Ocean from as early because the yr 2050.
As I’ve mentioned so many occasions on the Ice Blog, what occurs within the High North impacts the entire planet. As Ezat instructed me, primarily based on his analysis:
“Changes in Arctic Sea ice can considerably influence the ocean ecosystems and assets at excessive latitudes. It additionally impacts the local weather globally. For instance, and of specific relevance to our examine, melting of Arctic sea ice could end in enhanced freshwater export into the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic Ocean. This could decelerate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which might in the end result in disruptions of the seasonal monsoons, lowered oceanic carbon dioxide uptake (and thus extra CO2 accumulation within the ambiance) and extra sea-level rise in some areas comparable to alongside the U.S. East coast.”
This matches with the warnings issued by the 43 scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers.
“The impacts notably on Nordic Countries would seemingly be catastrophic, together with main cooling within the area whereas surrounding areas heat. This could be an enlargement and deepening of the ‘chilly blob’ that already has developed over the subpolar Atlantic Ocean, and sure result in unprecedented excessive climate. While the impacts on climate patterns, ecosystems and human actions warrant additional examine, they might probably threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe”, the scientists clarify.
Why COP29 should give attention to the cryosphere
Scientists and anxious teams have lengthy been highlighting the significance of cryosphere soften and making an attempt to direct consideration in direction of the impacts on the annual UN local weather talks. The International Cryosphere Climate (ICCI) Initiative, which publishes the annual State of the Cryosphere Report, frequently organizes a Cryosphere Pavilion on the COP venue, bringing scientists, negotiators and policymakers collectively to place the highlight on our frozen areas. Last yr, the organisation printed an open letter at COP28 by greater than 1,000 scientists, calling for the Cover Decision to incorporate the cryosphere problem:
“Because of the Cryosphere response, even 2°C is simply too excessive. The Paris Agreement’s “effectively under 2°C” can imply only one factor: 1.5°C alone. We subsequently want a Stocktake with clear pointers to make 1.5°C a actuality; a path to section out fossil fuels; and monetary mechanisms to help local weather motion, in addition to the difference, and loss and injury – most of it in the end tied to irreversible Cryosphere loss – now inevitable even under 1.5°C; however far worse above that.
A failure to take action would imply “world leaders are de facto deciding to burden humanity for hundreds of years to millennia by displacing a whole lot of tens of millions of individuals from flooding coastal settlements; depriving societies of life-giving freshwater assets, disrupting delicately-balanced polar ocean and mountain ecosystems; and forcing future generations to offset long-term permafrost emissions.”
Sadly, the Dubai COP28 didn’t produce the specified outcomes:
With every passing yr, the necessity for local weather motion turns into extra pressing, the window for averting catastrophic impacts closes additional. At COP29 in Baku, we nonetheless have one other likelihood.
ICCI will publish the 2024 State of the Cryosphere Report,within the coming weeks. It is unlikely to carry any respite, I worry. The organisation can also be one in all 8 companions becoming a member of Norway, the present Chair of the Arctic Council, to host a significant facet occasion at COP29 entitled “A message from the Frozen World – the Global Impact of a Changing Cryosphere”. Politicians, scientists and Indigenous representatives will intention to “carry the cryosphere to COP29”, as a part of a concerted effort to bridge the hole between science on the one hand and coverage and governance on the opposite.
“For too lengthy, the cryosphere has been left off the worldwide local weather agenda regardless of its immense impacts. As Chair of the Arctic Council, Norway is set to carry this crucial problem to the forefront, convening key actors and driving motion. Norway is dedicated to elevating the cryosphere on the worldwide agenda, making certain the world hears the pressing message from the polar and excessive mountains area and takes decisive motion,” the Arctic Council writes.
Sounds good? High time, given Norway’s location within the High North – and the nation’s background as a fossil-fuel economic system.
Cryosphere menace: too lengthy ignored
Glaciers and ice sheets, snow, permafrost and sea ice all bind us collectively by supplying contemporary water to tens of millions of individuals, stabilizing the worldwide local weather, and defending us from sea-level rise, the organizers write.“However, the cryosphere is underneath important menace from varied local weather change-driven components, and the world can’t look away”. They make the hyperlink between the Arctic and different cryosphere areas such because the Himalayas, and different components of the world which might be affected by change in distant frozen areas.
“These modifications are rushing up at an unprecedented charge and impacting individuals all over the place. (…) Sea-level rise from ice sheets and glaciers is flooding low-lying coastal areas and inflicting erosion, placing a whole lot of tens of millions of individuals in coastal cities and island communities in danger in coming many years. Mountain glaciers, which offer freshwater to tens of millions of individuals, are melting quickly, and snowpack is lowering. This is resulting in elevated flooding and contamination of water sources, which threatens the provision of dependable freshwater to billions of individuals. Thawing permafrost is inflicting extreme injury to buildings and infrastructure throughout the Arctic, Himalayas and different mountain areas. The altering cryosphere can also be threatening houses and livelihoods, usually impacting Indigenous Peoples such because the Saami, Inuit and Sherpa who additionally face a mess of exterior compounding threats. It can also be opening journey to and thru the Arctic, resulting in elevated exercise in areas comparable to transport and mining exploration.”
The facet occasion, with high-ranking politicians, scientists and Indigenous representatives, “not solely integrates complete insights from native to world scales but in addition transitions easily into actionable steps guided by the newest scientific analysis and coverage frameworks, aiming to catalyze decisive world actions to scale back greenhouse fuel emissions and short-lived local weather forcers to restrict world warming to 1.5°C. “
That, I’d say, is official-speak for lastly getting the message throughout to the world’s governments that they should enhance their efforts massively and provide you with definitive measures to carry world warming to 1.5°C.
The degree of warming will increase the severity of impacts
In its 2023 Synthesis Report, the IPCC expresses “excessive confidence that the chance of irreversible modifications within the local weather system will enhance with the extent of worldwide warming”. It additionally explains that the chance of doubtless huge destructive impacts will increase with the extent of warming.
Given that it is a physique whose studies are topic to a rigorous modifying course of together with stress from governments to keep away from something that may very well be construed as panic-making or power them to take fast measures they don’t need to take, that may be a fairly robust assertion.
As the scientists level out to the Nordic ministers, the IPCC truly writes that “dangers related to large-scale singular occasions or tipping factors… transition to excessive threat between 1.5°C – 2.5°C of worldwide warming”.
How rather more do we’d like? Why has this not set the alarm bells ringing? The world’s specialists have been telling us that even inside the Paris Agreement limits of two°C, ideally 1.5°C, we’re risking catastrophic impacts throughout the globe, and that the chance will get larger with each little bit of warming.
Emissions Gap – Rhetoric and Reality
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has simply printed its Emissions Gap Report 2024 (sub-titled: No extra scorching air … please!). You may very well be forgiven for those who missed it, because it was pushed onto the media sidelines by ongoing crises within the Middle East and Ukraine and the US election (whose consequence admittedly will to a big extent decide the destiny of our local weather).
The report identifies a “huge hole between rhetoric and actuality” as international locations draft their new local weather commitments, to be offered early in 2025, whereas local weather impacts intensify across the globe. “Nations should ship dramatically stronger ambition and motion within the subsequent spherical of Nationally Determined Contributions or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C aim might be gone inside just a few years”, the UN finds.
Continuation of present insurance policies will result in a catastrophic temperature rise of as much as 3.1°C, the report concludes.
Talk about scary?
Current commitments for 2030 are usually not being met; even when they’re met, temperature rise would solely be restricted to 2.6-2.8°C.
Nations should collectively decide to reducing 42 per cent off annual greenhouse fuel emissions by 2030 and 57 % by 2025 within the subsequent spherical of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and again this up with fast motion.
Otherwise, the world on track for a temperature enhance of two.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would carry “debilitating impacts to individuals, planet and economies”, UNEP states. That may very well be placing it mildly.
Trying to look on the constructive facet, “It remains to be technically doable to fulfill the 1.5°C aim, however solely with a G20-led huge world mobilization to chop all greenhouse fuel emissions, beginning at the moment”, the report finds.
Ice and snow soften: no higher cause for fast local weather motion
What is going on within the cryosphere ought to persuade even essentially the most reluctant of the necessity to cut back emissions drastically asap.
Let us come again to the plea for motion offered by these 43 local weather scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers. That group contains Arctic Council Chair Norway – self-declared champion of the cryosphere at COP29 – and Iceland, a co-organiser of the COP29 cryosphere occasion and co-chair of the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) group based by 20 authorities ministers in 2022 at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. (Norway can also be a member). AMI goals to “be certain that the irreversible and devastating world impacts of cryosphere loss are understood by political leaders and the general public alike: not solely inside mountain and polar areas, however all through the planet.”
The scientists’ message to the political leaders:
“Given the growing proof for a better threat of an AMOC collapse, we imagine it’s of crucial significance that Arctic tipping level dangers, specifically the AMOC threat, are taken critically in governance and coverage. Even with a medium chance of incidence, on condition that the end result could be catastrophic and impacting the complete world for hundreds of years to return, we imagine extra must be accomplished to reduce this threat”. And they stress that the northern governments might champion the trigger.
For Norway, specifically, (and my native Scotland), Rahmstorf says in an interview with the Guardian:
“The dangers might be existential and lift the query whether or not individuals can proceed to dwell there or whether or not most of them would moderately transfer”.
The conclusion must be apparent, Rahmstorf goes on:
“This is all pushed primarily by fossil gasoline emissions and in addition deforestation, so each have to be stopped. We should persist with the Paris settlement and restrict world heating as near 1.5C as doable.”
The scientist provides:
“ I don’t assume it’s my job to speak about my emotions, however I do have two kids and I’m very nervous about what future they may dwell in. I generally joke that physicists don’t have emotions. But even physicists care about their youngsters”.
With a concerted effort, this might and must be the UN convention the place the cryosphere, our frozen world, lastly makes it to the highest of the worldwide local weather agenda. The causes for that aren’t comfortable ones. But there might be no motion with out consciousness. And a scarcity of motion – quick, definitive, efficient – would spell catastrophe.
