2024 Election Voter Turnout Map: See Where Trump Gained and Harris Lost

It could look like a transparent story: Donald Trump gained the election by successful essentially the most votes. He improved on his totals, including about 2.5 million extra votes than 4 years in the past. But simply as consequential to the result had been Kamala Harris’s losses: She earned about 7 million fewer votes in contrast with Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s efficiency in 2020.

Ms. Harris failed to search out new voters in three of the seven swing states and in 80 p.c of counties throughout the nation, a New York Times evaluation reveals. In the locations the place she matched or exceeded Mr. Biden’s vote totals, she did not match Mr. Trump’s good points.

We can’t but know what number of Biden voters backed Mr. Trump or didn’t vote in any respect this cycle. But the decline in help for Ms. Harris in among the nation’s most liberal areas is especially notable. Compared with Mr. Biden, she misplaced tons of of hundreds of votes in main cities together with Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, and total earned about 10 p.c fewer votes in counties Mr. Biden gained 4 years in the past.

Mr. Trump, in contrast, discovered new voters in most counties, with vital good points in crimson states like Texas and Florida and likewise in blue states like New Jersey and New York.

Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics on the University of Virginia, acknowledged that Biden voters who swung towards Mr. Trump performed an element in Ms. Harris’s loss, however pointed to low Democratic turnout because the bigger issue.

“They simply weren’t excited,” Mr. Sabato mentioned of Democratic voters. “They had been in all probability disillusioned by inflation, possibly the border. And they didn’t have the motivation to rise up and exit to vote.”

The nationwide rightward shift is a continuation of voting patterns seen within the final two elections. Even in his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump discovered new voters throughout the nation. (Both events earned extra votes in 2020 than in 2016.) And though Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022, when some had predicted a “crimson wave,” they misplaced many citizens who had been dissatisfied with rising costs, pandemic-era restrictions and immigration coverage.

At the native degree, three distinct patterns assist illustrate the general consequence in 2024:

1. Where each candidates gained votes, however Trump gained extra.

In hard-fought Georgia, each events discovered new voters, however Mr. Trump outperformed Ms. Harris. For instance, in Fulton County, which accommodates most of Atlanta, Ms. Harris gained about 4,500 votes, however Mr. Trump gained greater than 7,400.

How vote totals modified in Atlanta precincts

Where every candidate bought
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart and Christine Zhang

In addition to his good points within the Atlanta space, Mr. Trump gained new voters in each different a part of Georgia. He flipped the state again to Republicans after Mr. Biden’s win there in 2020. He equally outran Ms. Harris the place she made good points in Wake County, N.C., Lancaster County, Pa., and Montgomery County, Texas.

2. Where Trump gained somewhat and Harris misplaced somewhat.

In Milwaukee County in swing-state Wisconsin, Ms. Harris misplaced 1,200 voters in contrast with Mr. Biden’s complete in 2020, whereas Mr. Trump gained greater than 3,500.

How vote totals modified in Milwaukee precincts

Where every candidate bought
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart and Christine Zhang

Ms. Harris nonetheless gained the county at massive, however her margins there and in different liberal enclaves of Wisconsin weren’t sufficient to carry off Mr. Trump’s victories in rural, blue-collar counties that voted Republican in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats’ incapability to keep up their vote totals in battleground states was additionally obvious within the essential areas round Charlotte, N.C., Flint, Mich., and Scranton, Pa.

3. Where Trump gained somewhat and Harris misplaced so much.

Mr. Trump gained Florida’s Miami-Dade County, turning into the primary Republican to take action since 1988. But once more, Ms. Harris’s loss was simply as a lot of the story as his acquire: Mr. Trump gained about 70,000 new votes within the county, whereas she misplaced almost 140,000.

How vote totals modified in Miami precincts

Where every candidate bought
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart and Christine Zhang

Other counties that Mr. Trump flipped had comparable vote disparities. In 21 of those 77 counties, Mr. Trump obtained fewer votes on this election than in 2020, however the Democratic vote drop-off was a lot steeper. This occurred from coast to coast, from Fresno County, Calif., to Pinellas County, Fla.

Joel Benenson, the chief pollster for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, mentioned he thought Democratic turnout was damage by the party’s lack of a presidential major. (Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July.) That course of, he mentioned, helps energize core voters who get entangled with volunteering, making cellphone calls and knocking on doorways early within the yr.

“That was an actual problem for Vice President Harris, who had a brief runway and would have benefited from an actual major season,” Mr. Benenson mentioned. “Republicans had a contested major — even with a former president, they didn’t simply hand it to him.”

Mr. Trump was clearly in a position to harness enthusiasm past his base. He made good points throughout nearly all teams ranging in demographics, training and revenue, together with people who historically made up the Democratic coalition. Ms. Harris did not match Mr. Biden among the many identical teams.

Pre-election polls confirmed minority voters swinging towards Mr. Trump, and he appeared to make good points with these teams. He picked up votes in majority-Hispanic counties and in Black neighborhoods of main cities, a preliminary evaluation of precinct knowledge reveals. But he misplaced votes, as did Ms. Harris, in majority-Black counties, particularly these within the South the place turnout dropped total.

Mr. Trump discovered new voters in additional than 30 states, together with within the battleground states that had been the websites of strong campaigning. His good points had been modest in most different locations. Ms. Harris was in a position to enhance on Mr. Biden’s efficiency in solely 4 of the seven battlegrounds and simply 5 states total.

John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign pollster, mentioned the marketing campaign was targeted on discovering supporters who weren’t dependable voters and ensuring they turned out to the polls. He mentioned that inner polling confirmed that voters who solid a poll in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 p.c to 46 p.c.

“The technique was very very like 2016, to carry out informal voters who thought the nation was on the flawed observe,” Mr. McLaughlin mentioned. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and customarily had optimistic approval for Trump.”